How do you make a time series sing like a choir? Using the Hilbert-Huang transform to extract embedded frequencies from economic or financial time series

The Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) was developed late last century but has still to be introduced to the vast majority of economists. The HHT transform is a way of extracting the frequency mode features of cycles embedded in any time series using an adaptive data method that can be applied without making any assumptions about stationarity or linear data-generating properties. This paper introduces economists to the two constituent parts of the HHT transform, namely empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Hilbert spectral analysis. Illustrative applications using HHT are also made to two financial and three economic time series.business cycles; growth cycles; Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT); empirical mode decomposition (EMD); economic time series; non-stationarity; spectral analysis

Decomposing the co-movement of the business cycle: a time- frequency analysis of growth cycles in the eurozone

This article analyses the frequency components of European business cycles using real GDP by employing multiresolution decomposition (MRD) with the use of maximal overlap discrete wavelet transforms (MODWT). Static wavelet variance and correlation analysis is performed, and phasing is studied using co-correlation with the eurozone by scale. Lastly dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models are used to obtain dynamic correlation estimates by scale against the EU to evaluate synchronicity of cycles through time. The general …ndings are that eurozone members fall into one of three categories: i) high static and dynamic correlations at all frequency cycles (e.g. France, Belgium, Germany), ii) low static and dynamic correlations, with little sign of convergence occurring (e.g. Greece), and iii) low static correlation but convergent dynamic correlations (e.g. Finland and Ireland)Business cycles, growth cycles, European Union, multiresolution analysis, wavelets, co-correlation, dynamic correlation.

A New Approach to Analyzing Convergence and Synchronicity in Growth and Business Cycles: Cross Recurrence Plots and Quantification Analysis

Convergence and synchronisation of business and growth cycles are important issues in the efficient formulation of euro area economic policies, and in particular European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy. Although several studies in the economics literature address the issue of synchronicity of growth within the euro area, this is the first study to address this issue using cross-recurrence analysis. The main findings are that member state growth rates had largely converged before the introduction of the euro, but there is a wide degree of different synchronisation behaviours which appear non-linear in nature. Many of the euro area member states display what is termed here as "intermittency" in synchronization, although this is not consistent across countries or members of the euro area. These differences in synchronization behaviors could cause problems in future implementation of euro area monetary policy.Euro area; business cycles; growth cycles; recurrence plots; recurrence quantification analysis; non-stationarity; complex systems; surrogate analysis.

Decomposing the co-movement of the business cycle: a time-frequency analysis of growth cycles in the euro area

This article analyses the frequency components of European business cycles using real GDP by employ-ing multiresolution decomposition (MRD) with the use of maximal overlap discrete wavelet transforms (MODWT). Static wavelet variance and correlation analysis is performed, and phasing is studied using co-correlation with the euro area by scale. Lastly dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models are used to obtain dynamic correlation estimates by scale against the EU to evaluate synchronicity of cycles through time. The general findings are that euro area members fall into one of three categories: i) high and dynamic correlations at all frequency cycles (eg France, Belgium, Germany), ii) low static and dy-namic correlations, with little sign of convergence occurring (eg Greece), and iii) low static correlation but convergent dynamic correlations (eg Finland and Ireland).business cycles; growth cycles; European Union; multiresolution analysis; wavelets; co-correlation; dynamic correlation

A single currency for Asia? Evaluation and comparison using hierarchical and model-based cluster analysis

Today, there is increased speculation on the possibility of an Asian currency, as the region begins to show increased promise as a region of nascent economic activity. Any monetary integration scheme in East Asia would likely have to include both China and India though, so this paper attempts to assess the evolution of convergence among the East Asian countries, including China and India, according to the optimum currency area theory criteria, which is operationalized through the use of cluster analysis. In this paper we use both traditional "hierarchical" clustering as well as the more recently developed "model-based" clustering techniques and compare the outcome in each case. As the East Asian crisis of 1997-98 is likely to a¤ect the results, the exercise is done for pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. The results reveal some structure among the countries, an increase in the degree of subregional homogeneity, and a robust relationship between Malaysia and Singapore

Evaluating the stresses from ECB monetary policy in the euro area

This paper investigates the extent to which euro area monetary policy has responded to evolving economic conditions in individual member states as opposed to the euro area as a whole. Based on a forward-looking Taylor rule-type policy reaction function, we conduct counterfactual exercises that compare the monetary policy behaviour of the ECB under alternative hypothetical scenarios: (1) the euro member states make individual policy decisions, and (2) the ECB responds to the economic conditions of individual members. Stress measures are then constructed to evaluate the degree of divergence of member state economies under these two hypothetical scenarios. The results we obtain reflect the extent of heterogeneity among the national economies in the monetary union, indicating that euro area policy rates have been particularly close to the ‘counterfactual’ interest rates of the largest euro members and countries with similar economic conditions, namely Germany, Austria, Belgium and France.European Central Bank; monetary policy reaction; Taylor rule; counterfactual analysis

Patrick Crowley, interviewed by Alan Comeau, Part 1

Patrick Crowley, interviewed by Alan Comeau, September 21 and October 20, 1993, at the Shuffle Inn in Old Town, Maine. For the Islands and Bridges project. Crowley talks about life on French Island; family reunions and genealogy; businesses on the Island; St. Joseph\u27s school; crossing the ice; swimming and the booms on the Penobscot river; changes in winter weather; children\u27s work and recreation; neighborhood relationships; getting married; Christmas; mother\u27s divorce; feelings about his religion; working at the University; Saturday baths; Father John\u27s tonic; lighting a candle to pray; bars on French Island. Listen Part 1. mfc_na2766_c1492_01 Part 2. mfc_na2766_c1492_02 Part 3. mfc_na2766_c1493_01 Part 4. mfc_na2766_c1493_02https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mf026/1020/thumbnail.jp

The great moderation under the microscope: decomposition of macroeconomic cycles in US and UK aggregate demand

In this paper the relationship between the growth of real GDP components is explored in the frequency domain using both static and dynamic wavelet analysis. This analysis is carried out separately for the US and UK using quarterly data, and the results are found to be substantially different for the two countries. One of the key findings of this research is that the ‘great moderation’ shows up only at certain frequencies, and not in all components of real GDP. We use these results to explain why the incidence of the great moderation has been so patchy across GDP components, countries and time periods. This also explains why it has been so hard to detect periods of moderation (or other periods) reliably in the aggregate data. We argue this cannot be done without separating the GDP components into their frequency components over time. Our results show why: the predictions of traditional real business cycle theory often appear not to be upheld in the data.business cycles; growth cycles; discrete wavelet analysis; US real GDP; UK real GDP

How hard is the euro are core? An evaluation of growth cycles using wavelet analysis

Using recent advances in time-varying spectral methods, this research analyses the growth cycles of the core of the euro area in terms of frequency content and phasing of cycles. The methodology uses the con-tinuous wavelet transform (CWT) and also Hilbert wavelet pairs in the setting of a non-decimated discrete wavelet transform in order to analyse bivariate time series in terms of conventional frequency domain measures from spectral analysis. The findings are that coherence and phasing between the three core members of the euro area (France, Germany and Italy) have increased since the launch of the euro.time-varying spectral analysis; coherence; phase; business cycles; EMU; growth cycles; Hilbert trans-form; wavelet analysis

Mobilizing Insurgent Pasts Toward Decolonial Futures

This project is an inquiry into modes of decolonial resistance that mobilize alternative relationships to the past against the modern/colonial writing of history from a Eurocentric perspective taken as universal. I contend that knowledges and memories rooted in non-Western cultural traditions have formed the epistemological basis for ongoing opposition to the hegemonic conception of history as the unfolding of global structural transformations on a single, homogenous timescale. I examine works by Frantz Fanon, Dipesh Chakrabarty, and Zapatista videomakers that expressly reject a Eurocentric, monotopic perspective of history. My objective is to demonstrate the decolonial efforts of intellectuals and ordinary people to critically engage this hegemonic understanding of history from its epistemic borders and propose alternatives which do not merely repeat the monological impulse by replacing the West’s imperialist perspective of history with the orthodoxy of another cultural or national tradition